Dennis Norman Musings

Dennis Norman

By: Dennis Norman

Say What???  How could home sales have increased six-fold but yet we are still in the midst of a major recession in the U.S.?

For starters, the statistic I’m quoting come from the Radar Logic housing market report for January 2009.  In their report for January 2009 their report states “On a year-over-year basis, the decline in home sales slowed in January….Sales across the 25 MSAs traced by Radar Logic declined 6% in the year ending January 2009, versus 36% in the prior year.  BINGO!  There’s where the 600% in my headline comes from.

Don’t get me wrong…I’m not bashing Radar Logic.  In fact, back in January I did a post in which I said I thought their approach to analyzing home prices made sense.  I just want to draw attention to how statistics and headlines can sometimes paint a picture different than reality may be.

I’m not saying the Radar Logic stats are wrong…I just want to ask you….Do you think there are 6 times as many homes being sold now (actually January 2009) than a year ago?  I have not done a survey to this effect but my guess is if you go and pose this question to a dozen or so of your friends and neighbors no one would say sales have increased six-fold.

So where did all these sales come from?  I don’t know for a fact but my guess is since so many of the metro areas covered by this report are ones that were severely impacted by foreclosures that many of these sales are investors buying up bargains to a greater extent and homeowners to a lessor extent.