Dennis Norman Musings

Dennis Norman

By: Dennis Norman

Today the National Association of REALTORS(R) published their Commercial Leading Indicator for Brokerage Activity for the second quarter of 2009 showing a decline of 1.3 percent to an index of 101.5, down from an index of 102.8 in the first quarter. At 101.5 the index for the second quarter of 2009 is 13.7 percent below the 2nd quarter of 2008 when the index was at 117.6. The index is currently at the lowest level since the first quarter of 1994.

In reviewing NAR’s report, it doesn’t appear any of the sectors have been able to avoid a slowdown, below is a recap by sector: Read more…

Dennis Norman

By: Dennis Norman

The good news about the real estate market keeps coming! Don’t get too excited yet, I don’t know that the worst of it is over yet, not sure if the “fat lady has sang” yet or not, but at least the reports lately on the market have been encouraging.

According to the latest report released today from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing-home sales in the second quarter showed healthy gains from the first quarter in the vast majority of states.

Existing home sales (including single-family homes and condos) by state rose 3.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million units in the second quarter from a rate of 4.58 million units in the first quarter. While an improvement over first quarter, the second quarter numbers are still 2.9 percent below the 4.90 million-unit pace from the second quarter of last year.

In all, thirty-nine states showed sales increases in the second quarter from first quarter and nine states had higher sales numbers for the quarter than a year ago. Read more…

Dennis Norman

By: Dennis Norman

Today the National Association of REALTORS(R) released its existing home sales report for June showing an increase in sales for the 3rd month in a row and rising prices for the month in all regions of the U.S.

Existing home sales, including single-family, town-homes, condominiums and co-ops increased 3.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million units. This rate is almost identical to last years sales at the same time which is a first in a quite a while. May’s rate was down 3.6% from a year ago and June is down just 0.2% from a year ago.

Also for the first time in a while, all four regions of the U.S. had an increase in sales for the month with the West leading the pack with a 6.4% increase followed by the South at 4.9%, Northeast at 2.5% and the Midwest a 0.9%. Read more…

Dennis Norman

Today the National Association of REALTORS(R) released its existing home sales report for June showing an increase in sales for the 3rd month in a row and home prices declining less sharply.

Existing home sales, including single-family, town-homes, condominiums and co-ops increased 3.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million units.  This rate is almost identical to last years sales at the same time which is a first in a quite a while.  May’s rate was down 3.6% from a year ago and June is down just 0.2% from a year ago.

Also for the first time in a while, all four regions of the U.S. had an increase in sales for the month with the West leading the pack with a 6.4% increase followed by the South at 4.9%, Northeast at 2.5% and the Midwest a 0.9%. Read more…

By: Dennis Norman

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NAR

It appears that lower prices along with low interest rates are bringing buyers back into the market as the market continues to show signs of life and gives us hope that we may be near the bottom.

The National Association of REALTORS(R) issued their Pending Home Sales Index Report for May which only showed a modest increase of 0.1% over April, however May marks the fourth month in a row the index has increased. Not since the middle of the boom (October, 2004) have we seen pending sales up four months in a row.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, does warn though that there may be delays in getting these new sales closed saying “closed existing-home sales have improved but are coming in lower than expected because some contracts are delayed or falling through from the application of new appraisal rules for many transactions.” Yun is no doubt referring to the new, and controversial,  Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC). Yun goes on to say “rises in contract activity show buyers are becoming more active even as they face much more stringent loan underwriting standards. Speedy clarification of the appraisal rules could smooth a housing market recovery and support the overall economy.” Read more…

By: Dennis Norman

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NAR

We continue to see some encouraging data on the real estate market showing that buyers may be gaining some confidence in the market.  To this point, the  National Association of REALTORS(R)  Pending Home Sales Index Report for May showed a very modest increase of 0.1% on the index, over April, making it the fourth monthly increase in a row…something we haven’t seen sine October 2004.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, does give caution though about the time it may take these sales to result in closings saying “closed existing-home sales have improved but are coming in lower than expected because some contracts are delayed or falling through from the application of new appraisal rules for many transactions.” So once again, it appears Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC)is in the spotlight. Yun goes on to say “rises in contract activity show buyers are becoming more active even as they face much more stringent loan underwriting standards. Speedy clarification of the appraisal rules could smooth a housing market recovery and support the overall economy.” Read more…

Dennis Norman

By: Dennis Norman

Today the National Association of REALTORS(R) released its existing home sales report for May showing an increase in sales for the 2nd month in a row.  This is the first time we’ve seen two consecutive months of sales increases in almost 4 years.

Sales for May were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4,770,000 homes which is a 2.4% increase over Aprils’ rate of 4,660,000. May’s rate is 3.6% below last year which is pretty consistent with Aprils year to year decline of 3.5%.

The Midwest region which has been holding pretty steady had a 9% increase in sales for the month followed by the Northeast with a 3.9% increase and the South with no change from April.   The West was the only region reporting a decline in sales albeit a mere 0.9% decline.

Median home prices in the U.S. rose 3.8% from an adjusted median price of $166,600 for April to $173,000 in May which is 16.8% less than a year ago.   The West was the only region that saw a decline in price from April to May with prices dropping from 204,200 to 197,700.  The West has seen the biggest decline in median prices from a year ago with a decline of 30.6%, followed by the Northeast with a 12.5% decline, the Midwest at 10.4% and the South at 9.9%.

I’m going to repeat my recent mantra….overall I think the numbers show the market is trying to find a bottom and may be leveling off.   

Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS(R) expected an improvement.  He said “Historically low mortgage interest rates clearly drew buyers into the market and housing remains very affordable even with a recent uptick in rates.  First-time buyers also are being drawn off the sidelines by the $8,000 tax credit, which is helping to absorb inventory.  However, the increase in sales is less than expected because poor appraisal are stalling transactions.”

By: Dennis Norman

Today the National Association of REALTORS(R) released its existing home sales report for May showing an increase in sales for the 2nd month in a row.  This is the first time we’ve seen two consecutive months of sales increases in almost 4 years.

Sales for May were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4,770,000 homes which is a 2.4% increase over Aprils’ rate of 4,660,000. May’s rate is 3.6% below last year which is pretty consistent with Aprils year to year decline of 3.5%.

The Midwest region which has been holding pretty steady had a 9% increase in sales for the month followed by the Northeast with a 3.9% increase and the South with no change from April.   The West was the only region reporting a decline in sales albeit a mere 0.9% decline.

Median home prices in the U.S. rose 3.8% from an adjusted median price of $166,600 for April to $173,000 in May which is 16.8% less than a year ago.   The West was the only region that saw a decline in price from April to May with prices dropping from 204,200 to 197,700.  The West has seen the biggest decline in median prices from a year ago with a decline of 30.6%, followed by the Northeast with a 12.5% decline, the Midwest at 10.4% and the South at 9.9%.

I’m going to repeat my recent mantra….overall I think the numbers show the market is trying to find a bottom and may be leveling off.   

Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS(R) expected an improvement.  He said “Historically low mortgage interest rates clearly drew buyers into the market and housing remains very affordable even with a recent uptick in rates.  First-time buyers also are being drawn off the sidelines by the $8,000 tax credit, which is helping to absorb inventory.  However, the increase in sales is less than expected because poor appraisal are stalling transactions.”

By: Dennis Norman

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NAR

Today the National Association of REALTORS(R) issued their Pending Home Sales Index Report for April which showed a significant increase of 6.7% on the index, over March. April makes the third month in a row the index has increased.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said “buyers are responding to very favorable market conditions. Housing affordability conditions have been at historic highs, but now the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit is beginning to impact the market. ”

Pending sales in the US overall were up 6.7% from March and up 3.2% from April of last year. Three of the four regions showed an increase; the Northeast shot up 32.6% from March and is slightly ahead of the same time last year, the Midwest was up 9.8% for the month and up 11.1% from last year, the West rose 1.8% over March but is down 2.9% from a year ago and the South had a minor decrease for the month of 0.2% but is still showing a 3.5% increase over last year.

Homes continue to be more affordable than ever according to the National Association of REALTORS(R) housing affordability index for April. The household income necessary to buy a median priced home in the U.S. has dropped almost 25% in the past year, down to $34,848.00.

To see an interview with Lawrence Yun by REALTOR(R) Magazine click on the video below.

Dennis Norman

By: Dennis Norman

Yesterday the National Association of REALTORS(R) released its existing home sales report for April showing a slight increase in sales of 2.9% over March. 

Sales for April were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4,680,000 homes which is down 3.5% from last year, which means in year over year numbers things are improving because last months annual rate was down 7.1% from the year before.

The Midwest region which has held steady for the prior two months saw a modest 2% decrease from March and was the only region with decrease this time.  The Northeast region had the highest increase in sales over March at 11.6% but is still down 10.5% from a year ago.  The West had a 3.5% increase over March and is still the only region showing an increase over the prior year with a 19.4% increase.  The South had a 1.8% increase over March and is down 8.9% from a year ago.

Read more…