Dennis Norman Musings

The new home market continue to shows some life coming back to it which should be encouraging news to investors.  This morning the U.S. Department of Commerce released a report showing the sale of New Homes in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, an 11% increase from May.  

While the sales numbers for June are still down 21.3% from a year ago, it is still a vast improvement from May’s year over year numbers which showed a 33% decline from a year ago.

Median prices for new homes decreased from $221,600 in May to $206,200 for June. Homes in the $150,000 – $299,999 range continue to dominate sales with 56% of the sales for June falling in this price range.

Perhaps the best news in the report is on the inventory of new homes. Inventory declined again to 281,000 homes which represents an 8.8 month supply based upon current sales rate. This is the lowest inventory we have seen in a long time and is a very positive sign to me. Read more…

By: Dennis Norman

This morning the US Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for June 2009 showing an  increase in new home construction activity.

The report shows the following:

• Building permits issued for single-family residences in June were at an annual rate of 430,000 which is a 5.9% increase over May, but still 28.9% below the rate a year ago.
  • The South region had the largest one month increase at 11.1%, followed by the West at 1.2%.  The Midwest and Northeast had no change from May.
• Housing starts for single-family residences in June were at an annual rate of 470,000 which is a 14.4% increase over May and is 28.2% below last year.
  • The Midwest had the largest one month increase in starts at 26.4%, followed by the Northeast at 24.3%, the West at 15.2% and the South at 8.1%.
• Single-family homes completed in June were at a rate of 538,000 which is an increase of 8.9% from May and 36.1% down from a year ago.
  • The West saw the biggest jump in completed homes with an increase of 30.9% from May, the South saw a 8.5% increase, the Midwest a 1.1% increase and the Northeast had a 17.1% decline in completions from May.

The numbers are clearly showing some increased activty in new home construction.  Hopefully, until sales increase, any increases in construction will be modest so that we don’t end up increasing the inventory of unsold homes above where it is now.  In 10 days the new home sales numbers for May will be released and hopefully will show increases to substantiate the increased construction activity.

By: Dennis Norman

This morning the U.S. Department of Commerce released a report showing the sale of New Homes in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 342,000.  this represents a 0.6% drop from Aprils rate of 344,000 and is almost 33% down from a year ago.

Three of the four regions in the US actually saw an increase in new home sales for the month.  The Northeast region was up 28.6% followed by the Midwest and the the West with increases of 18.6% and 1.3% respectively.  The South saw a 8.5% drop in sales for the month.

Median prices for new homes increased to $221,600 from $212,600 in April.  Homes in the $200,000 – $299,999 range continue to dominate sales with 28% of the sales, homes in the $150,000 – $199,999 range accounted for 25% of the sales for the month.

The inventory of new homes continued it’s decline down to 292,000 homes in May which represents a 10.2 month supply.  A 10.2 month supply is still about twice as high as we would like to see but it is certainly headed the right direction.  The Northeast region has the largest inventory of new homes with a 14.66 month supply, followed by the Midwest with a 11.29 month supply, the West at 9.75 months and the South at 9.3 months.

These figures are once again consistent with my earlier comments that I think the market is leveling off and perhaps is close to finding it’s bottom.  As new home inventories continue to decline we should see more strength in sales numbers.

By: Dennis Norman

This morning the U.S. Department of Commerce released a report showing the sale of New Homes in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 342,000.  this represents a 0.6% drop from Aprils rate of 344,000 and is almost 33% down from a year ago.

Three of the four regions in the US actually saw an increase in new home sales for the month.  The Northeast region was up 28.6% followed by the Midwest and the the West with increases of 18.6% and 1.3% respectively.  The South saw a 8.5% drop in sales for the month.

Median prices for new homes increased to $221,600 from $212,600 in April.  Homes in the $200,000 – $299,999 range continue to dominate sales with 28% of the sales, homes in the $150,000 – $199,999 range accounted for 25% of the sales for the month.

The inventory of new homes continued it’s decline down to 292,000 homes in May which represents a 10.2 month supply.  A 10.2 month supply is still about twice as high as we would like to see but it is certainly headed the right direction.  The Northeast region has the largest inventory of new homes with a 14.66 month supply, followed by the Midwest with a 11.29 month supply, the West at 9.75 months and the South at 9.3 months.

These figures are once again consistent with my earlier comments that I think the market is leveling off and perhaps is close to finding it’s bottom.  As new home inventories continue to decline we should see more strength in sales numbers.

By: Dennis Norman

This morning the US Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for May 2009 showing a slight increase in new home construction activity.

The report shows the following:

• Building permits issued for single-family residences in May were at an annual rate of 408,000 which is a 7.9% increase over April, but still 35.1% below the rate a year ago.
  • The Midwest region had the largest one month increase at 16.1%, followed by the Northeast at 13.5% the west at 7.5% and finally the South at 6.5%.
• Housing starts for single-family residences in May were at an annual rate of 401,000 which is a 7.5% increase over April but is 40.9% below last year.
  • The South had the largest one month increase in starts at 10.6%, followed by the Midwest at 9.4%, the West at 8.6% and the Northeast actually had a decline of 12.5%
• Single-family homes completed in May were at a rate of 491,000 which is a drop of 9.4% from April and 42.4% down from a year ago.
  • The Midwest region had the smallest monthly decline in completions with a drop of 2.3% followed by the South with a decline of 8.2%, the Northeast with a decline of 11.1% and the West with a 17% decline.

I think overall the numbers look good showing a very modest amount of increased construction activity.  However, some of these statistics have high margins of error (for example housing completions is + or – 7.1% and housing starts are + or – 6.0%) we need to see several months of consistent data for the numbers to really mean anything in terms of the market.

By: Dennis Norman

This morning the US Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for May 2009 showing a slight increase in new home construction activity.

The report shows the following:

• Building permits issued for single-family residences in May were at an annual rate of 408,000 which is a 7.9% increase over April, but still 35.1% below the rate a year ago.
  • The Midwest region had the largest one month increase at 16.1%, followed by the Northeast at 13.5% the west at 7.5% and finally the South at 6.5%.
• Housing starts for single-family residences in May were at an annual rate of 401,000 which is a 7.5% increase over April but is 40.9% below last year.
  • The South had the largest one month increase in starts at 10.6%, followed by the Midwest at 9.4%, the West at 8.6% and the Northeast actually had a decline of 12.5%
• Single-family homes completed in May were at a rate of 491,000 which is a drop of 9.4% from April and 42.4% down from a year ago.
  • The Midwest region had the smallest monthly decline in completions with a drop of 2.3% followed by the South with a decline of 8.2%, the Northeast with a decline of 11.1% and the West with a 17% decline.

I think overall the numbers look good showing a very modest amount of increased construction activity.  However, some of these statistics have high margins of error (for example housing completions is + or – 7.1% and housing starts are + or – 6.0%) we need to see several months of consistent data for the numbers to really mean anything in terms of the market.

By: Dennis Norman

Today the US Census Buruea and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a report on December new home starts, permits and completions.

Once again the numbers in all three categories dropped. Building permits for privately-owned housing units at an annual rate of 548,000 for December fell 10.7% from November and was 50.6% Read more…

By: Dennis Norman

Today the US Census Buruea and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a report on December new home starts, permits and completions.

Once again the numbers in all three categories dropped.  Building permits for privately-owned housing units at an annual rate of 548,000 for December fell 10.7% from November and was 50.6% Read more…