Dennis Norman
By: Dennis Norman
The good news about the real estate market keeps coming! Don’t get too excited yet, I don’t know that the worst of it is over yet, not sure if the “fat lady has sang” yet or not, but at least the reports lately on the market have been encouraging.
According to the latest report released today from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing-home sales in the second quarter showed healthy gains from the first quarter in the vast majority of states.
Existing home sales (including single-family homes and condos) by state rose 3.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million units in the second quarter from a rate of 4.58 million units in the first quarter. While an improvement over first quarter, the second quarter numbers are still 2.9 percent below the 4.90 million-unit pace from the second quarter of last year.
In all, thirty-nine states showed sales increases in the second quarter from first quarter and nine states had higher sales numbers for the quarter than a year ago. Read more…
Dennis Norman
According to Freddie Macs weekly mortgage market survey mortgage rates increased slightly this week from the prior week. The survey shows 30 year fixed rate mortgages averaging 5.25% with 0.7% in fees and points, up from 5.20% the week before. Last year at this time, the 30 year rate averaged 6.52%.
Rates on 15 year fixed-rate mortgages held steady at 4.69%, 5/1 ARM’s held about the same at 4.75% and 1 year ARM’s rose slightly to 4.80%. This time last year these arms were 6.07% and 5.27% respectively.
“Bond yields rose slightly higher this week on market optimism that the economy may be stabilizing somewhat and mortgage rates followed those yields,” said Fronk Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.
“Other economic reports confirm that the housing market may indeed be bottoming out. New home sales rose for the third consecutive month in June to an annual pace of 384,000 homes, the most since November 2008 and the number of new houses on the market fell to the lowest amount since February 1999, according to the Department of Commerce. Sales of existing homes also showed a three-month gain to 4.89 million, the most since October, 2008, and the share of distressed homes fell to 31 percent compared to almost half at the beginning of the year, the National Association of Realtors reported.
James B. Lockhart III, Director, Federal Housing Finance Agency
By: Dennis Norman
In an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box James Lockhart, Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency which is the regulator of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and the Federal Home Loan Banks had a few good things to say about the real estate market.
When asked about his thoughts on the housing market he was somewhat optimistic with his reply, saying “I think we’re in process and we may be starting to see some bottoming (of the market). How long that will take, well its anybody’s guess…..Certainly mortgage rates being down where they were were very helpful at 5.4%. They’re higher (now), but they’re still in a range that I think does achieve affordability.” Read more…
Dennis Norman
By: Dennis Norman
Florida is definitely a state that has felt the impact of the declining real estate market. It has been one of of the top four states in number of foreclosures, biggest declines in values and a few other statistics a state would just as soon not be associated with.
The tides may be turning though. The Florida Association of REALTORS(R) reported today that existing home sales in their state rose again in May…the ninth month in a row that sales activity has increased in a year-to-year comparison. Home sales were up 16% in May and condo sales were up 21% for the same period.
Home and condo prices in Florida have taken a big hit over the past two years. Last month the median home price for existing homes was $144,400, a year ago it was $203,800. However the median price in May for Florida was higher than the prior four months. Condo prices have followed suit as well: May’s median condo price was $113,400, down almost 40% from a year ago when it was $181,700. Like single family homes, condo prices are showing signs of “bottoming out”. May’s median condo price was higher than the prior 3 months and about equal to four months ago.
These stats would lead me to believe that the prices in Florida have fallen to 
the point where home owners and investors are perceiving value and stepping up to the plate and buying. For investors that have been wanting to take advantage of the lower prices in Florida but cautiously waiting for the “bottom” I think these statistics should tempt them to wade out in the water.
Having said that I want to do a little CYA. With the way our federal government has been printing and spending money and the relative instability of the economy, things could change for the bad quickly and this could end up being a “false bottom”. The problem is it is really impossible to determine the “bottom” of a market until it has passed.
Dennis Norman
By: Dennis Norman
According to a report issued by IHS Global Insight, house prices in the first quarter of 2009 declined in 199 of the 330 metro markets they monitor. At just over 60% of the metros this represents a huge decrease from 4th quarter 2008 when 312, or almost 95% of the metros, showed declining prices.
For first quarter 2009 the price decline nationally was 2.2%, annualized, compared with an annualized decline of 12.5% for 4th quarter 2008 which once again represents a significant move in a positive direction for the market.
Another interesting, and encouraging, item in the report is their measurement of valuation and whether real estate is overvalued or undervalued. For the first quarter 2009 the report shows that overall the real estate market is currently undervalued by 10.6% which is a significant change from the peak of the market in 4th quarter 2005 when their reports showed the market as a whole was overvalued by 24.2%. Currently only one market, Atlantic City, New Jersey, is considered to be “extremely overvalued” coming in at 44.1% over valued. This is a sharp contrast to 2005 when IHS Global Insight considered 52 metro areas to be extremely overvalued. Read more…
Dennis Norman
By: Dennis Norman
According to a report issued by IHS Global Insight, house prices in the first quarter of 2009 declined in 199 of the 330 metro markets they monitor. At just over 60% of the metros this represents a huge decrease from 4th quarter 2008 when 312, or almost 95% of the metros, showed declining prices.
For first quarter 2009 the price decline nationally was 2.2%, annualized, compared with an annualized decline of 12.5% for 4th quarter 2008 which once again represents a significant move in a positive direction for the market.
Another interesting, and encouraging, item in the report is their measurement of valuation and whether real estate is overvalued or undervalued. For the first quarter 2009 the report shows that overall the real estate market is currently undervalued by 10.6% which is a significant change from the peak of the market in 4th quarter 2005 when their reports showed the market as a whole was overvalued by 24.2%. Currently only one market, Atlantic City, New Jersey, is considered to be “extremely overvalued” coming in at 44.1% over valued. This is a sharp contrast to 2005 when IHS Global Insight considered 52 metro areas to be extremely overvalued. Read more…
Dennis Norman
By: Dennis Norman
Yesterday the National Association of REALTORS(R) released its existing home sales report for April showing a slight increase in sales of 2.9% over March.
Sales for April were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4,680,000 homes which is down 3.5% from last year, which means in year over year numbers things are improving because last months annual rate was down 7.1% from the year before.
The Midwest region which has held steady for the prior two months saw a modest 2% decrease from March and was the only region with decrease this time. The Northeast region had the highest increase in sales over March at 11.6% but is still down 10.5% from a year ago. The West had a 3.5% increase over March and is still the only region showing an increase over the prior year with a 19.4% increase. The South had a 1.8% increase over March and is down 8.9% from a year ago.
Read more…
Dennis Norman
By: Dennis Norman
Yesterday the National Association of REALTORS(R) released its existing home sales report for April showing a slight increase in sales of 2.9% over March.
Sales for April were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4,680,000 homes which is down 3.5% from last year, which means in year over year numbers things are improving because last months annual rate was down 7.1% from the year before.
The Midwest region which has held steady for the prior two months saw a modest 2% decrease from March and was the only region with decrease this time. The Northeast region had the highest increase in sales over March at 11.6% but is still down 10.5% from a year ago. The West had a 3.5% increase over March and is still the only region showing an increase over the prior year with a 19.4% increase. The South had a 1.8% increase over March and is down 8.9% from a year ago.
Read more…
Dennis Norman
By: Dennis Norman
According to a new study by the Center for Housing Policy despite declining home prices, many of the jobs created through the federal stimulus package do not pay enough to afford a home.
The study, Paycheck to Paycheck: Wages and the Cost of Housing in America, This new study compares housing costs in more than 200 U.S. metropolitan areas with the wages earned by workers in 60 occupations and was released yesterday. Read more…
Dennis Norman
By: Dennis Norman
According to a new study by the Center for Housing Policy despite declining home prices, many of the jobs created through the federal stimulus package do not pay enough to afford a home.
The study, Paycheck to Paycheck: Wages and the Cost of Housing in America, This new study compares housing costs in more than 200 U.S. metropolitan areas with the wages earned by workers in 60 occupations and was released yesterday. Read more…
